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LOS ANGELES (AP) – The California recall election that could remove first-term Democratic governor Gavin Newsom from office ends Tuesday. Nearly 8 million postal ballot papers – the form of voting most Californians use – have been returned to registered voters by 22 million.
The competition took place this summer when the nation’s most populous state saw a surge in coronavirus infections from the highly contagious Delta variant and the return of masks and other restrictions in many places. There have been raging forest fires, crime rates have risen, and a homeless crisis continues unabated.
Republicans are hoping for a surprise in a strongly democratic state where the GOP has not won any national elections since 2006. Newsom defends its record on the virus, warning that Republican frontrunner Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host, is undermining California’s progressive values.
The election is being watched nationwide and the outcome could affect the 2022 elections if a tightly divided Congress is involved.
How did California get to this point? Here are some answers:
WHAT IS A RECALL?
California is one of 20 states that have provisions for removing incumbent governor, 19 by elections. State law that sets the rules dates back to 1911 and was intended to give voters more power by removing elected officials and repealing or enacting laws by putting them on the ballot.
Recall attempts are common in the state, but they rarely get on the ballot and even less succeed. The only time a governor has been removed was in 2003, when Democrat Gray Davis was ousted and voters replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit in late August that sought to block dismissal for violating the constitution by creating a situation where an incumbent governor could lose his dismissal but still get more votes to order to remain in office as the victorious substitute candidate receives.
WHY IS THERE A RECALL DRIVE AGAINST NEWSOM?
The answer is simple and complicated.
The easy part: Californians got angry during the pandemic. Whipsaw jobs at home stay with Newsom, crushing job losses from shop closings, closed schools, and the disruption of daily life pissed off almost everyone. Many of life’s routines were cut off at some point, if not entirely, be it a trip to the beach or lunch at a popular taco shop.
The tricky part: In a state of nearly 40 million people, there are many grievances, including California’s purse-hogging taxes, rising food and gas prices, looming water rationing due to a prolonged drought, a homeless crisis, and the ongoing threat of forest fires. As governor, Newsom is a ready target for this resentment.
He is also hit by the aftermath of a multi-billion dollar fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency while he weathered the public shame of eating maskless with friends and lobbyists at an exclusive restaurant last fall when he told residents to stay home.
HOW DOES THE ELECTION WORK?
There are two questions: voters are asked if Newsom should be removed, yes or no, and then who should replace it. You choose from 46 replacement candidates.
If a majority of voters approve the ousting of Newsom, the candidate with the most votes on the second question will become governor. With dozens of candidates sharing these ballots, it’s possible for one winner to get 25% or less of the vote.
Statistics compiled by Political Data Inc., a company that collects election information for Democrats, Independents, and academics, found that nearly 8 million voters returned postal ballots, which would translate into around 35% turnout if the polls by Tuesday be continued.
Seniors vote in the usual high number, younger voters have so far been less enthusiastic.
WHO ARE THE SUBSTITUTE CANDIDATES?
There are 46 names on the ballot, but former Congressman Doug Ose retired on health grounds after it went to press. The 24 Republican candidates include Elder; former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer; Businessman John Cox, who was defeated by Newsom in 2018; Reality TV personality and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner; and Rep. Kevin Kiley.
There are nine Democrats, 10 Independents, two Greens and one Liberal. No Democrat with political stature ran the game – the best-known is real estate agent and YouTube personality Kevin Paffrath. Most of the candidates are largely unknown and have not run credible campaigns.
WHAT DO THE CANDIDATES PROMISE?
Elder, who leads polls, has pledged to give the Democrat-dominated state a fresh look and common sense, and said he will quickly lift the state’s mask and vaccine mandates.
Kiley has announced that it will end the state of emergency pandemic immediately, which would automatically wipe out all state and local orders.
Faulconer has proposed abolishing state income tax for individuals up to $ 50,000 and households up to $ 100,000 to make the state more affordable for the middle class.
Cox drew attention to himself by running a campaign with a 1,000 pound (450 kilograms) Kodiak bear that he believed represented the need for “animal” change in the state, calling for a historic tax cut.
Jenner received a lot of attention when she entered the race, but she has run a very low-key campaign and barely enrolls in polls.
WHAT DO NEWSOM SAY ABOUT THE RECALL?
He dodged questions of a possible recall for months, saying he wanted to focus on coronavirus, vaccinations and reopening schools. In March, he launched an aggressive campaign and began running ads to attack the recall and conduct national television and cable interviews.
The main committee that opposed the recall had raised nearly $ 70 million by the end of August.
Newsom, who was elected in a landslide in 2018, has admitted that people were anxious and tired after a difficult year of restrictions. He recently defended his record during the pandemic – arguing that his decisions saved thousands of lives – while warning that a Republican victory would undermine the state’s progressive values and potentially have ramifications across the country.
Democrats say efforts to remove him are being driven by far-right and supporters of former President Donald Trump. The recall is backed by state and national Republicans, but organizers argue that they have a broad coalition that includes many Independents and Democrats.
Recently, Newsom has focused its attacks on Elder, calling him more extreme than Trump in many ways. Elder dismisses such criticism as a political ploy to divert attention from Newsom’s record of crime, homelessness, and the pandemic.
The governor spent much of 2020 on the defensive. But he has benefited from a record budget surplus that has allowed him to tour the state to announce huge new spending programs, including $ 12 billion to tackle homelessness; Checks of up to $ 1,100 each for millions of low and middle earners who struggled during the lockdown; and $ 2.7 billion for a free kindergarten for all 4-year-olds in the state.
HOW PRECARE IS NEWSOM’S CONTINUATION IN ITS JOB?
In the depths of the pandemic, Newsom’s popularity collapsed and it appeared at risk, with widespread unrest over long-standing school and business closings. Many business owners were furious at what they saw as Newsom’s sluggish restrictions, with some opening and closing multiple times. Others rebelled against mask mandates.
Earlier this year, a reopened economy and amazing tax dollars helped Newsom recover. However, when Newsom fully reopened the state on June 15, virus cases were near record lows. Since then, the number of cases has increased, especially among the unvaccinated.
Los Angeles County, which makes up a quarter of the state’s population, has reintroduced masking requirements for indoor use in public places, even when people are vaccinated. California also requires K-12 students to wear masks when they return to classrooms. Such an arrangement could hurt Newsom, especially among those who felt he didn’t do enough to reopen schools last year.
However, recent polls show that Newsom is in a strong position to keep its job. He has advantages over his GOP rivals: Democratic voters outnumber Republicans almost 2 to 1, and the party controls every national office and dominates the legislature and the congressional delegation. President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-President Barack Obama have called on voters to reject the recall.
The Republicans last won a national election in 2006 when Schwarzenegger was re-elected.
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Check out AP’s full coverage of the California recall election: https://apnews.com/hub/california-recall
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