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WASHINGTON – Senior US defense officials have issued a strong warning of the danger Afghanistan’s top terrorist groups will pose to America once the last of the US and coalition forces leave the country in the coming months.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers Thursday that it will “possibly take about two years” for groups like al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to regain the ability to plan attacks against the United States and its Western allies.
The country’s senior military officer, Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, further warned that depending on the fate of the current Afghan government, this schedule could be sped up.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley looks on during a Senate Grants Committee hearing in Washington on June 17, 2021.
“If the government collapsed or the Afghan security forces were disbanded, that risk would of course increase,” said Milley.
US President Joe Biden announced the decision to withdraw all remaining US forces from Afghanistan in April, arguing that the United States has already achieved its original goal – al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden for carrying out the deadly Sept. ., 2001, terrorist attacks on the New York World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
“We have done justice to bin Laden,” Biden said in a speech to a joint session of Congress. “And we have reduced the terrorist threat posed by al-Qaida in Afghanistan. … After 20 years of brave bravery and sacrifice, it is time to bring these troops home. “
However, concerns remain about the potential of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Afghanistan, known as IS-Khorasan, to resurface without US boots on the ground.
US military and intelligence officials have repeatedly warned of a potential ripple effect that could destabilize Afghanistan and its neighbors and give terrorist groups a long-awaited opportunity to step up and expand their operations.
“Anywhere we see a significant terrorist presence there is a risk that it will become some sort of platform from which to threaten the homeland,” said Christine Abizaid, who was appointed director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, last week to lawmakers, pointing out the need for the US to put “relentless pressure” on groups like al-Qaeda and IS to minimize the threat.
“This is true for the Af-Pak region as well as for # Iraq- # Syria, for North #Africa and various other areas in which #ISIS and # alQaeda in particular remain,” per # NCTC candidate Abizaid, noted need after “relentless pressure”
– Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) June 9, 2021
A recent assessment by United Nations member states is also of concern, warning that the Afghan Taliban insurgents are ready to overthrow the current Afghan government by force if the negotiations do not lead to positive results.
It also warned that, contrary to the Taliban’s promise to sever ties with al-Qaeda, the relationship was deepening “as a result of the personal ties of marriage and the common fighting partnership now cemented by the ties of the second generation.”
For the most part, White House and Pentagon officials have tried to reassure the public that it will be possible to counter the possible reappearance of al-Qaeda and ISIS, also known as ISIS, with widespread attacks, whether from nearby bases or aircraft carriers East.
“We will still have the opportunity to go over the horizon to pursue al-Qaeda and ISIS, should these targets emerge and be the ones we want to conquer,” said General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, the US commander -Central Command told VOA last week.
In the case of the several hundred IS fighters in Afghanistan, however, McKenzie warned that “continue CT” [counterterrorism] Pressure, sustained direct pressure ”is all that stood in the way of the group“ getting back together and growing in number ”.
And while the US withdrawal is more than 50% complete, plans for what the “Beyond the Horizon” capability will look like seem to be in flux.
“We are talking to a variety of countries about how we are building effective capacities across the horizon, from both an intelligence and a defense perspective,” via @ JakeSullivan46 #Afghanistan #Pakistan #alQaida #ISIS
– Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) June 7, 2021
“We’re in the process of looking at the beyond-the-horizon architecture we need to have,” Defense Department Under-Secretary of State for Intelligence and Security Ronald Moultrie told lawmakers last week.
“We had weekly, almost daily, discussions about how to do this,” added Moultrie. “We need to work very closely with our partners and allies to ensure that this is a robust architecture.”
Time is running out and US and coalition forces are expected to leave Afghanistan well before the September deadline set by Biden.
“There are no guarantees,” Milley told lawmakers on Thursday. “There are a number of results here.”
Carla Babb contributed to this report.
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