Is this third COVID-19 wave our last? Austin is 822 people closer to the answer being ‘yes’
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AUSTIN (KXAN) – For the first time in about two months, Austin-Travis County’s hospital admissions appear to be on a downward trend. Have we finally reached our third peak? Dr. Desmar Walkes, the local health authority, says she is “cautiously optimistic”.
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While this is undoubtedly hopeful news, we have been burned before. Earlier this year, vaccinated Texans took off their masks for a glorious few months, returned to movie theaters and restaurants, and resumed activities that had been gone for about a year. It looked like the pandemic was finally nearing its end.
A member of a government mobile vaccine team gives an East Austin man on the porch of Sam’s BBQ at a community vaccination clinic Jan.
Of course, we all know that the carpet was waiting to be torn from beneath us in a more contagious variety than anything we’ve seen before. The Delta variant caused a third surge in Texas and Austin-Travis Counties that pushed hospital capacities and healthcare systems to new extremes.
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The question now is, will this third climb be the last?
Health experts say that if we achieve herd immunity, it will largely curb the emergence and spread of additional variants and bring the pandemic to bed. Without herd immunity, this will take much longer and have more speed bumps.
In short, it depends on your neighbors – and it turns out we have good news in that regard.
A month ago, KXAN interviewed an Austin mother who was struggling to convince her adult children, one living in Austin and one outside of the state, to get her COVID-19 vaccine. Peggy Daniels reached out to us as part of our Keep Austin Well town hall looking for tools to convince her kids to get their chance.
“They’re both very educated, have good jobs, and for some reason they were both hesitant,” she said. “My daughter was a bit scared of it because she felt like there weren’t enough tests and all that stuff. I think my son was put off even more by the political ramifications of the whole thing. ”
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But now, a month later, her two children have received at least their first dose of a vaccine. Daniels says that the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine was largely thanks to her son’s vaccination. Her daughter was afraid of passing the virus on to her parents as the Delta variant has been shown to be more transmissible.
“She actually got her first shot before she was approved by the FDA,” said Daniels.
The story of the Daniels family is something we hear all over town. Whether the last burst was more companies and places putting up vaccine incentives, the full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine, or because of concerns raised by the Delta variant, 822 people received their first dose of a COVID last week -19 vaccine via Austin Public Health and Community Care, according to APH dashboard. This does not include the first doses given by other providers and clinics such as Walgreens and CVS.
Austin Public Health says the first doses APH gave last week were 171 Moderna, 359 Pfizer and 45 J&J. These numbers do not include any Community Care numbers.
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An APH spokesman told us that they didn’t overwhelmingly see people applying for the Pfizer vaccine in their clinics because it received full FDA approval. They suspect that the Pfizer vaccine’s popularity last week was simply a product of its being approved for use in children between the ages of 12 and 17. APH ran several mobile vaccination clinics in schools.
Yet, for whatever reason, the gap between us and herd immunity is closing. Walkes reported that only nine percent of the community are currently susceptible to the virus.
A graph shown before the Austin City Council and Travis County Commissioners on Tuesday, August 31, shows progress in herd immunity (courtesy of APH).
In the graphic above, the people marked “estimated” are people who had COVID but were asymptomatic or had no symptoms and therefore were not tested according to APH.
It’s worth noting that this graph looks at infections in terms of herd immunity, but health experts still say that the vaccine is much more effective at protecting against re-infection than antibodies produced by contracting the virus.
Data collected by KXAN daily shows that approximately 67% of Travis County’s population is fully vaccinated.
Texas trends
We are not only seeing an increase in the first vaccinations locally, but a nationwide trend. The chart below shows the number of daily vaccine doses across Texas. The pink bars represent the first doses given but do not include the first doses of the J&J vaccine, which is a single dose vaccine and is included in the second or single dose data shown in green.
For the past month, vaccinations across the state of Texas have been steadily creeping up to daily levels that we haven’t seen since May.
While this is all very promising news, the fact remains that, according to Dr. Adrienne Sturrup, the interim director of APH, about 250,000 eligible people in Austin-Travis County remain unvaccinated. Colored communities continue to lag behind, she said in a briefing Tuesday.
According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, 39.26% of Black or African Americans in Travis County are fully vaccinated, and 54.49% of Hispanics or Latinos. That compares to 68.64% of people who are white and fully vaccinated.
A spokesperson for CVS Health says that in the past two months, 40% of vaccines administered have been made to members of underrepresented communities across the country. APH has also said they are focused on delivering vaccine information and clinics to communities that are lagging behind on vaccination rates.
To find COVID-19 vaccine locations near you or to schedule an appointment, visit the Austin Public Health website. The vaccination centers remain closed over the holiday weekend.
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