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SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – North Korea says it successfully tested what it called new long-range cruise missiles over the weekend and reiterates concerns that its nuclear-armed leadership is building its capacity to attack US allies in South Korea and Japan.
Experts weigh what the missile tests show about the ambitions of the isolated ruler of the north, Kim Jong Un, and whether that signals a new threat.
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THE DESIGN OF THE ROCKET
Experts say the missiles launched over the weekend are similar to the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles and are likely to overwhelm the missile defenses of North Korea’s neighbors.
The North said the missiles, which it called the “new long-range cruise missiles,” were “a strategic weapon of great importance” in line with Leader Kim Jong Un’s call to bolster the country’s military might – which implies that they were designed with the intention of carrying nuclear weapons.
Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said Monday that the missiles flew on “oval and pattern-8 trajectories” over land and water for 126 minutes, demonstrating the ability to hit targets at a distance of 1,500 kilometers (932 miles).
While North Korea had previously tested anti-ship cruise missiles, the missiles from its latest tests will likely be built with different designs and engines that offer improved range and maneuverability, experts say.
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A NEW THREAT
While data from the tests are limited so far, it is clear that the new missiles represent “another significant milestone for North Korea’s nuclear program,” said Melissa Hanham, a subsidiary of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.
North Korea’s rulers would likely deploy their cruise missiles on submarines and other naval vessels, Hanham added, as they attempt to create new nuclear weapon delivery mechanisms.
“Cruise missiles are almost like small airplanes – they can be very accurate,” Hanham said. “You can turn the corner. They can penetrate valleys where radars would not easily see them. It would be a much more difficult problem to monitor for South Korea and Japan. “
Seoul, Washington and Tokyo said they would investigate the north’s latest tests but would not immediately release specific assessments from their military.
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REGIONAL AMBITIONS
Kim has unilaterally stopped North Korean tests of atomic bombs and long-range ballistic missiles targeting the American homeland since 2018 when he initiated diplomacy with former President Donald Trump while trying to use his arsenal to ease sanctions.
However, the north continues to pursue policies that threaten regional confrontation.
While Kim has maintained the suspension of nuclear and long-range tests following the failure of his 2019 talks with Trump, the North has since tested a growing arsenal of short-range solid-fuel weapons launched from land-based launch vehicles.
Experts say these weapons threaten South Korea and Japan because they can be quickly fired from vehicles and move on flattened trajectories that make it harder for defense systems to detect and intercept.
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TECHNICAL PROBLEMS
While the new cruise missiles may expand North Korea’s capacity to attack its Asian rivals, the information released by its official news agency signaled a need for technological improvement, said Lee Choon Geun, missile expert and honorary research fellow with the South Korean Science and Technology Institute.
The weapons were slow, even cruise missile standard, at about 200 meters per second. It is also unclear whether North Korea has accurate computerized data on the geographic features of South Korea or can relay that information to its missiles so they can navigate the terrain and find their targets.
Accuracy issues will be less of a concern as the North gains the ability to arm the missiles with miniaturized nuclear warheads, Lee added.
“South Korea has probably the densest air defense network in the world, but it will still be difficult to react when North Korea fires large numbers of its artillery, short-range low-range missiles, anti-submarine missiles and cruise missiles,” said Lee.
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Kim’s Bluff?
The North’s latest tests came before Biden’s Special Envoy to North Korea, Sung Kim, was due to meet his South Korean and Japanese counterparts in Tokyo this week to discuss the deadlocked nuclear diplomacy with North Korea.
In recent political speeches, Kim has vowed to strengthen his nuclear deterrent while his administration opposed the Biden administration’s talks and urged Washington to abandon its “hostile” policies first.
Kim may want to return to the negotiating table, however, as he may face its toughest test in nearly decades of reign as North Korea maintains an indefinite border lockdown amid the coronavirus pandemic and there is no prospect of ending international sanctions.
While the cruise missiles were clearly a sign of resistance to Washington, the tests may have indicated the North is struggling with more provocative weapon systems – such as ballistic missiles launched from submarines, said Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
He questioned whether the cruise missiles would sensibly increase North Korea’s effectiveness against its neighbors unless the north demonstrates the ability to fire them underwater.
“If North Korea had had this ability, it would surely have shown it by now,” said Cha.
“It is possible that the north has hit a wall technologically and is squeezing out everything it can,” he added.
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